Pollster Nate Silver, who is known for the accuracy of his predictions, believes that former President Donald Trump will become president again.

The pollster said, in a piece for The New York Times that his “gut” says the Republican nominee will defeat the Democrat presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.

But, he said, the election in his eyes is 50/50 and his prediction could be incorrect.

“So OK, I’ll tell you,” he said. “My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.”

But he warned, “I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine.”

“Instead, you should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50. And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris,” he said.

He said that “50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” and that the polls “could be equally wrong for Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”

But he said the polls may not be showing the true support for the former president because of “nonresponsive bias.”

“Nonresponse bias can be a hard problem to solve. Response rates to even the best telephone polls are in the single digits — in some sense, the people who choose to respond to polls are unusual. Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization. Pollsters are attempting to correct for this problem with increasingly aggressive data-massaging techniques, like weighting by educational attainment (college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys) or even by how people say they voted in the past. There’s no guarantee any of this will work,” the pollster said.

“If Mr. Trump does beat his polling, there will have been at least one clear sign of it: Democrats no longer have a consistent edge in party identification — about as many people now identify as Republicans,” he said.