With just two weeks left until Election Day, a new poll of Arab-American voters has significantly influenced the presidential race.

Conducted by YouGov and commissioned by the Arab News Research & Studies Unit, the poll shows former President Donald Trump with a narrow 2-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among Arab-American voters.

The development is particularly noteworthy as the Middle East conflict has been a central focus in the presidential campaigns since last year.

The poll indicates a strong expected turnout, with 87% of Arab Americans planning to vote in the upcoming election. The issue of Palestine remains a key priority for many respondents, which may be contributing to Trump’s slight lead.

His administration’s past policy approaches to the Middle East, in contrast to Harris’s, seem to resonate with this voter bloc, especially as the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict continues to dominate the news.

Conducted between September 26 and October 1, the survey included 500 Arab-Americans nationwide. While it has a margin of error of +/- 5.93%, it offers valuable insights into the candidates’ standings within this crucial demographic, which could impact outcomes in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Arab-American populations are significant.

The poll also explores voters’ broader perspectives on Middle Eastern issues. When asked which presidential administrations would be most likely to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict successfully, respondents were divided: 39% favored Trump, while 33% supported Harris.

Jill Stein, running as a Green Party candidate, garnered 8% support. Notably, 11% of respondents indicated that neither major party candidate would effectively handle Middle East policies.

Additionally, 38% believe that a two-state solution is the most viable path forward for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Arab-American voters appear divided on how U.S. foreign policy should evolve under a new administration.

For instance, 41% think the next administration should prioritize diplomacy with Iran, while 32% prefer maximum diplomatic pressure and increased sanctions. Only 4% advocate for military intervention.