Economists are forecasting that the actual U.S. job growth through March 2024 is significantly lower than what the Biden-Harris administration has previously reported. A potential revision could result in as many as 1 million jobs being cut from the original totals. Kamala Harris had earlier praised the economy’s growth under their administration in February.

Economists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. anticipate that the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions, expected to be released on Wednesday, will reveal that payroll growth through March was at least 600,000 jobs weaker than initially estimated, according to Bloomberg. JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters predict a decrease of 360,000, while Goldman Sachs suggests it could be as large as 1 million.

Bloomberg highlighted that while there are several “caveats” to the preliminary estimates, a downward revision exceeding 501,000 jobs would be the most significant in 15 years. Such a revision would indicate that the labor market has been cooling for a longer period and perhaps more than previously thought.

In a note, Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner stated, “A large negative revision would indicate that the strength of hiring was already fading before this past April,” making “risks to the full employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate more salient amid widespread softening in other labor market data.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) updates its March payrolls level annually using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, based on state unemployment insurance tax records. In February, Harris posted on Facebook, touting job numbers and stating, “We have more work to do, but it’s clear: America’s economy is strong and getting stronger.”

Current BLS data shows that 2.9 million jobs were added in the year ending in March 2024, averaging 242,000 per month. If the revised figures show a reduction of 1 million jobs, the monthly gains would average 158,000, which, while still healthy, represents a slowdown from the post-pandemic peak.

The July jobs report, released in August, revealed an increase in unemployment to 4.3 percent with 114,000 jobs added, below the 185,000 estimated by Dow Jones. Following the report’s release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 832 points. In June, one-third of the jobs added were in the government sector.