A leading election forecasting model is starting to indicate that former President Donald Trump is in a strong position with two weeks remaining before Election Day.

The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ now estimates Trump has a 52% chance of winning on November 5th, marking a significant shift from previous results that showed the candidates in a dead heat on October 17th. As a sign of the favorable outlook for Trump’s camp, the GOP is projected to gain control of both the U.S. House and Senate, according to DDHQ models.

In 2020, the organization gave President Biden an 87.6% chance of victory.

Following third-quarter fundraising reports indicating that Republicans are raising funds at a strong pace, pollsters are projecting a 71% chance of the Senate flipping to Republican control, while House Republicans have a 54% chance of maintaining their hold on the lower chamber.

In the Senate, Republicans are almost certain to secure the West Virginia seat currently held by Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) and are optimistic about winning the Montana seat occupied by vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). DDHQ predicts that no Republican-held seat is expected to be gained by the Democrats.

Trump’s lead marks the first time the respected forecaster has given him the advantage since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race.

The initial forecast, released on August 20th, showed Harris with a 53% lead over Trump’s 47%, a lead that has rapidly diminished as the race approaches its final month.

However, a lack of media strategy and a number of troubling national interviews have raised concerns among Democrats regarding the vice president’s ability to maintain her composure before the election. On the campaign trail, Trump has criticized his rival as “not smart,” “dumb,” and a “liar,” referencing her frequently mentioned but unproven claim about working several summers at McDonald’s.