A recent series of polls has demonstrated that former President Donald Trump is surprisingly polling well in New York, potentially forcing Democrats to defend the state they historically took for granted.

While President Joe Biden secured a 23-point victory in the Democratic stronghold during the 2020 election, Trump has been polling within single digits of Biden in 2024. Although it’s unlikely that the former president will seriously contend for the state, Republicans are optimistic that Trump’s popularity might enhance the prospects of down-ballot candidates.

This mirrors the GOP’s success in the 2022 midterm elections, which saw gains partly due to former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin’s (R-N.Y.) strong performance at the top of the ticket. Such dynamics could present a more challenging election cycle for New York Democrats than anticipated, the Daily Caller reports.

“The highest taxes in America throupled with self-inflicted crime and migrant crises are rinsing much of the blue out of the state, at least attitudinally,” GOP political consultant William F. B. O’Reilly told the Daily Caller. “This dynamic is forcing Democrats to spend tens of millions of dollars in a state they took for granted just four years ago.”

In a head-to-head matchup, Biden is only leading Trump by seven points in New York, as per an Emerson College/The Hill/PIX11 poll from May. In a five-way contest, Trump is behind Biden by six points, according to the same poll. Additionally, Trump trails Biden by nine points in a New York Times/Siena College poll, also from May. By comparison, the NYT/Siena poll from June 2023 had Biden leading Trump in New York by over 20 points, the Caller noted.

“Independent voters in New York who traditionally vote for Democrats, according to exit polling, have flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of ten points, 43% to 33%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement.

Trump’s recent campaign forays in the Bronx, Harlem, and Manhattan have drawn massively positive responses and crowds, including Democrats who are now leaning away from Biden.

“New York might be a blue state, but it’s not AOC-progressive blue, it’s blue-collar blue,” David Laska, director of communications for the New York Republican Party, told the outlet.