Former President Donald Trump leads in Nate Silver’s initial 2024 election forecast following the ABC News presidential debate, likely the only debate between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris before the November election.

Following a brief period during which Harris gained a slight edge due to a surge in Democratic enthusiasm after President Biden suspended his re-election campaign, Trump managed to regain and extend his lead in Silver’s August forecast.

As of September 6, Silver gave Trump a 60.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, a significant increase from just a few weeks earlier. Silver, who accounts for factors like response bias in his model, also had Trump leading in several key swing states, notably Pennsylvania.

On Wednesday, Silver released his first forecast following the debate. Although post-debate polls have not yet been published, viewers and undecided voters seem divided on who won. Many early post-debate polls have indicated Trump was the clear winner.

As such, in Wednesday’s update to the model, Silver gave Trump a 61.6% chance of winning the Electoral College, as he is also narrowing the gap in the popular vote, with Harris currently holding a 49.9% chance of winning, while Trump is trailing closely at 49%, according to the new model.

BREAKING: Trump remains the favorite in Nate Silver election model after new polls released today

Trump: 61.6% (+23.5)
Harris: 38.1% pic.twitter.com/ABKqASyVcE

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 11, 2024

Newly revealed statistics involving various facets of Tuesday night’s debate between Trump and Harris show exactly how biased the ABC moderators, David Muir and Linsey Davis, actually were.

According to an analysis of the transcript, the moderators attempted to “fact-check” Trump several times while never doing the same to Harris. Also, they pressed Trump several times for follow-ups to questions while never pressuring the vice president the same way.

Ryan Saavedra, a senior reporter at The Daily Wire, posted the stats to his X page: “Went through the debate transcript and counted: Trump was fact-checked 4 times Harris was fact-checked 0 times — Muir/Davis pressed Trump 6 times for follow-ups Muir/Davis pressed Harris 0 times for follow-ups — Trump made ~14 false statements Harris made ~16 false statements.”