A striking new poll released Friday reveals that former President Donald Trump is making significant inroads into states that Democrats had expected to hold firm through November.

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by only 2% in Virginia, despite the state’s Democratic stronghold with prominent figures like Sen. Tim Kaine and former governor Terry McAuliffe, and a progressive base in the wealthy suburbs of Loudoun County.

The University of Mary Washington poll indicates that Trump’s standing is well within the 3.7% margin of error. With the inclusion of potential third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Harris’s lead narrows to just 1%.

VIRGINIA poll by University of Mary Washington

2-WAY
Harris: 48%
Trump: 46%
—
FULL FIELD
Harris: 47%
Trump: 46%
RFK Jr: 2%
Other: 2%
——
Senate
Tim Kaine (inc): 49%
Hung Cao: 43%
Other: 2%
—
Sept. 3-9 | 756 LV | ±3.7%https://t.co/1cseQv3DYe

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 20, 2024

RFK Jr.’s potential to siphon votes from Harris is now limited, as he withdrew from Virginia’s ballot earlier this month. Prior polling suggested that the former Democrat-turned-independent was more likely to attract votes from Trump, whom he has endorsed and pledged to support in November.

Despite this, the new Virginia poll results are likely to concern Harris’s team, which had previously seen leads of 3 to 10 points over the past two months, according to FiveThirtyEight’s data.

The polling, conducted between September 3rd and 9th, does not reflect a surge of sympathy for Trump following the recent assassination attempt. Harris, President Joe Biden, and other top Democrats have struggled to respond effectively, condemning the violence while continuing to characterize Trump as a “threat to democracy.”

Missteps by Harris are exacerbating Democratic concerns about November. New Gallup results reveal that unfavorable opinions of Harris are rising, while Trump’s favorability is improving.

Despite both candidates being viewed unfavorably by a majority, Harris has seen a 5% drop in favorability, while Trump has gained 5%. The survey, which polled 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±2.5%, indicates these changes are statistically significant.