Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), a senior figure in the Senate majority and a longtime GOP heavyweight and a party leader, suddenly appears vulnerable in his home state.

A new poll released Wednesday by Victory Insights shows the 72-year-old Cornyn facing a potentially competitive challenge if Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton enters next year’s Republican primary.

Declining enthusiasm for Cornyn, who has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002, has been a recurring issue throughout his fourth six-year term. Many Texas Republicans are seeking a voice they believe better aligns with their deeply conservative state.

Cornyn’s favorability among Republicans suffered significantly in 2022 after he played a key role in negotiating a bipartisan gun reform bill. During three months of public debate on the issue, his disapproval rating climbed to 50%, up from 39%, according to the Texas Tribune.

The latest poll of 500 Republican primary voters, conducted from January 4 to 6, highlights some of Sen. Cornyn’s most significant vulnerabilities in facing a Republican electorate that has shifted dramatically toward MAGA-aligned values since he first took office.

Even without Paxton in the race, Cornyn trails a generic Republican challenger by 4%, with 25% of voters still undecided. “This is a very weak showing for an incumbent,” the poll’s authors noted.

If Paxton enters the race, he begins with an 8-point lead over Cornyn, with a similarly large portion of Republican voters remaining uncommitted.

The poll also asked respondents to identify which “type” of Republican they considered themselves, offering four options: “Donald Trump MAGA Republican” (58% said this applies to them); “Constitutional Conservative” (50.1% said this label applies); “Traditional Republican” (15.2%); and “Moderate Republican” (18.1%).

“It doesn’t take a genius to spot the trend here. Voters on the more moderate or traditional end of the spectrum tend to prefer Cornyn, while more conservative or Trump-aligned voters tend to prefer Paxton. The issue for Cornyn is that Donald Trump MAGA Republicans and Constitutional Conservatives together make up 69% of the electorate, and Paxton dominates among those types,” the authors of the poll noted.

📊 2026 Texas Senate GOP Primary

Ken Paxton – 42%
John Cornyn – 34%
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Undecided – 24%@VictoryPolling | LVs | January 4-6https://t.co/EpJglnOcQj pic.twitter.com/BwpbwitPwm

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 8, 2025

Following the elections, Cornyn unsuccessfully challenged colleague John Thune (R-SD) to succeed Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as majority leader after it became clear Republicans would control the Senate.

Thune’s decisive victory highlighted Cornyn’s struggles to maintain the confidence of his fellow caucus members, the pollsters noted.