According to former CNN political analyst Chris Cillizza, Democrats face an uphill battle to regain control of the Senate in 2026.

He noted the decision by New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen not to seek reelection as only compounding the party’s challenges.

On Wednesday, Cillizza argued that key retirements and limited resources put Democrats at a serious disadvantage. He emphasized that Shaheen’s departure, alongside other notable exits, has already dealt a significant blow to their prospects.

“Even if we don’t see another retirement on the Democratic side, these three retirements already I think have crushed the hopes of Democrats who wanted to try to win back the Senate in 2026,” he said.

Democrats require a net gain of four seats to regain the Senate, but the odds are not in their favor. With 22 Republican seats and 13 Democrat-held seats at stake, the party might have hoped for an opening. However, Cillizza believes that the reality tells a different story.

“There’s a finite pot of money that gets spent on Senate races,” he explained. “And the truth is that at least in Michigan and New Hampshire, particularly if Chris Sununu [former Governor of New Hampshire] winds up being the Republican nominee, what you’re going to see is that to hold those seats, just to hold those seats for Democrats, the party is going to have to spend tens of millions of dollars.”

Cillizza stated that the financial burden of defending key seats will hinder Democrats’ ability to go on the offensive.

“The money that gets spent there playing defense, just to hold Democratic seats, means money that doesn’t get spent playing offense in, let’s say, a state like Ohio, where Democrats are trying to recruit Sherrod Brown, the former senator, to take on John Huston, the appointed Republican senator,” he said.

While Democrats are expected to focus significant resources on challenging Republican incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Tom Tillis in North Carolina, these represent their main opportunities for gaining seats.

On the other hand, incumbents like Jon Ossoff in Georgia are facing risks, as polls indicate that he is vulnerable. “I just do not see it,” Cillizza said bluntly.

“I don’t see the money there. I don’t see the energy there. I don’t see the candidates there to expand the playing field. And I think that’s a major, major problem for Democrats,” Cillizza added.