Coin Flip Election
Charlie Kirk Staff
11/04/2024

The 50/50 Election Will Be Won By Who Wants It More
The 2022 midterm elections were painful for me. I was fired up for Kari Lake, Blake Masters, and the other candidates we fielded in Arizona. I thought a Red Wave was coming that would shatter the Biden Administration and pave the way for a triumph in 2024. But the Red Wave turned out to be just a mirage.
But it wasn’t just the sting of losing that was painful. It was how we lost. We didn’t fail on the issues or fail on enthusiasm. Instead, we failed on strategy.
Since Covid, early voting and mail voting has been more widespread than ever. But instead of taking advantage of an entire month to cast our ballots, conservatives focused our efforts on maximizing election day vote. In the process, we hurt our turnout with low-propensity voters and maximized the damage of election-day glitches and delays. It was a pointless, unnecessary, infuriating defeat.
I vowed that 2024 would be different. And with Election Day tomorrow, I’m proud to say that the Republican Party of 2024 is a better, smarter, and more agile one than the party of two years ago.
Turning Point is based in Arizona, and I was determined that we make this state into a model for what Republicans can achieve all around the country. At Turning Point Action, we recruited hundreds of full-time ballot chasers. We trained them to track down and turn out the thousands of people that we know lean GOP, but who more often than not fail to vote when elections roll around. In short, we taught our party to turn out fringe voters the same way the Democrats have been doing for years.
The results speak for themselves. In 2022, Arizona Democrats beat the GOP in the early vote, even though there are significantly more Republicans in Arizona than Democrats. In 2024, the situation has changed dramatically. At the time I write this, Republicans are beating Democrats in total turnout by more than 185,000 votes. More than 150,000 of those votes are the specific low-prop voters that we built our operation to go after. Not only do we have more votes overall, but we’ve also been beating Democrats in percentage terms: 59% of Republicans have already voted, compared to less than 58% of Democrats.
Not only are we beating Democrats in early turnout, but we’re doing it without cannibalizing our most reliable voters. Among voters who consistently vote in every election, Democrat turnout is actually better. But among the low-prop voters that Turning Point has focused on – people who have only voted in one of the last three elections, or who haven’t voted at all – our early vote has outperformed the left.
I’m proud of what we’ve achieved in Arizona. But I’m also under no illusions. A stronger early vote puts us in a better position, but it doesn’t guarantee a win. There is still one more day of voting, and it is the largest one.
As much as it hurts me to say it, Kamala could still win.
If you check the outstanding vote, there are plenty of reasons for Democrats to still feel hopeful and for Republicans to feel doubt. The pool of remaining voters is far younger, and while Trump has improved with this group, he is still likely to lose it – especially among those who can still be convinced to turn out. And since Kamala’s campaign has been far better-funded than Trump’s, she has the money to finance a powerful closing GOTV operation.
The world where Kamala wins is one where women radicalized by the abortion issue turn out in huge numbers. It’s one where Kamala’s viral Julia Roberts ad is accurate, with millions of superficially conservative women happy to smile and lie to their family members about their real feelings so they can vote for the right to kill their children. The world where Kamala wins is one where the young men enthusiastic about Trump never translate that enthusiasm into votes. It’s one where blacks and Hispanics alienated by the Democrats decide to simply sit the race out rather than pull the lever for another party. It would be a world where so-called “Christians” decide that staying home in protest is a better way to protect the unborn than casting a ballot for the most effective pro-life president in history. Kamala wins in a world where overall turnout is low – which is exactly why you don’t see Democrats pushing high turnout the way they have in every past election.
Still, by all rights, this is a race Donald Trump should be winning. The overall state of the country, the so-called “environmental factors,” favor him immensely. The economy is bad and low-income voters are still feeling Biden’s inflation. The border is a calamity and illegal immigrants are overwhelming the nation’s towns and cities. Americans overwhelmingly think the country is on the wrong track, and Kamala Harris is the one setting the track right now.
Donald Trump wrote The Art of the Deal, and on Tuesday he is in position to close the biggest deal of his life. Trump wins if the black, Hispanic, and youth support the polls say he is building actually translates into votes tomorrow, rather than just viral videos and memes. Trump wins if Christians realize that the fate of the country and of the unborn hinges on tomorrow’s result. Trump wins if motivated supporters offset Democratic money with grassroots energy, and keep turning out their family, friends, parishioners, coworkers, and neighbors until the moment the polls close. Trump wins if this is a high-turnout election, where Democrat failure becomes a demand for change instead of an excuse for apathy.
So…do Kamala’s supporters want it more? Or do you?
Stay focused. Turn out votes. Let’s win the race.