The FBI discreetly updated its 2022 data to indicate an increase in crime after initially reporting a decrease, and experts warn that these flawed figures are likely just the tip of the iceberg.

Originally, the Bureau reported a 2.1% decline in violent crime for 2022, but it later revised that figure to show a 4.5% increase instead. Experts speaking to the Daily Caller News Foundation highlighted that the FBI’s metrics suffer from several issues, including incomplete data collection, confusion regarding reporting standards, the exclusion of unreported crimes, and the inherent challenges of measuring crime on a national scale.

Democrats, corporate media outlets, and political pundits have frequently referenced the FBI’s data to argue that crime has decreased under President Joe Biden, most recently highlighting newly released figures for 2023 that indicate a 3% drop in violent crime for that year.

Recently, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg appeared on the airwaves to praise the reported crime decrease, asserting that “crime was up” during then-President Donald Trump’s presidency.

During the second presidential debate, ABC anchor David Muir fact-checked Trump using FBI crime data. Similarly, CNN’s Van Jones, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, NBC’s Joe Scarborough, and numerous other figures echoed the same claims about crime rates.

However, the sudden revision of the 2022 data raises doubts about whether a clear understanding of crime trends across the nation can be achieved. And the revision also largely proved Trump right.

According to John Lott, Director of the Crime Prevention Research Center, the agency’s criteria for reported crimes do not necessarily encompass all 911 calls, which can artificially lower the number of crimes reflected in the national data in certain instances.

“In order for the FBI to count it, a police report has to be filled out,” Lott said. “Over the last few years, we have a situation where if you call a 911 operator and you say it’s not an emergency or that the criminal has gone away, you’d have to go down to the police station to fill out a police report.”

The FBI depends on voluntary reporting from police departments nationwide, and each year, it omits data from a substantial number of agencies, according to the 2023 data report. In 2023, approximately 85% of departments and agencies participated, leaving out around 3,000 who were enrolled but did not submit reports.

According to the Bureau’s 2023 report, police departments can submit data to the FBI using two widely utilized reporting standards: the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) or the Summary Reporting System (SRS).

NIBRS provides detailed, incident-specific information about each crime, including data on the race, gender, and age of both victims and offenders. In contrast, SRS merely counts crimes without offering detailed information about each specific incident, as NIBRS does, the DC reported.

In 2021, when the FBI transitioned to using only NIBRS and discontinued the older, less detailed SRS, the participation rate dropped significantly to just 53%, according to the Congressional Research Service. In response, the FBI permitted agencies to use SRS alongside NIBRS starting in 2022, as noted by Charles Lehman, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, in his comments to the DCNF.

“In 2022 and 2023 they say cities that are not NIBRS-compliant can report under the SRS standard, and they’re reporting under SRS today,” Lehman said. “So you get the crime counts but you don’t get the stuff that comes in with the NIBRS data.”