Trump is currently positioned as the favored candidate to win the November election, according to 538’s simulations utilizing polling, economic, and demographic data, which indicate a four-point lead over Biden.

During the early afternoon update, 538’s projections showed Trump winning 52 out of 100 simulations, with Biden winning 48 out of 100 simulations. Overall, out of 1,000 simulations conducted, Trump emerged victorious in 509 instances, while Biden secured 487 wins, and there were no clear results in 4 simulations.

BREAKING: Donald Trump has pulled ahead in 538's forecast of the presidential election.

This is the first time he has EVER led a 538 forecast, in any of his three races. pic.twitter.com/ocAzqhe2Ry

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) June 14, 2024

538 clarifies that its forecast “is based on a combination of polls and campaign ‘fundamentals,’ such as economic conditions, state partisanship, and incumbency. It’s not intended to predict a winner, but rather to provide insight into each candidate’s likelihood of winning.”

As noted by Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, this marks the first time Trump has led a 538 forecast across his three campaigns.

538’s simulations also indicate that Trump is currently more likely to win the Electoral College, while Biden maintains an advantage in the national popular vote. Trump was projected to secure less than 350 electoral votes in 38 out of 100 simulations, while Biden was favored in 28 out of 100 simulations. Biden was predicted to win the national popular vote in 59 out of 100 simulations, compared to Trump’s 41 out of 100.

Furthermore, the simulations suggest that Trump has a significantly higher chance of winning at least one state that he did not carry in 2020. Trump was forecasted to win one of these states in 80 out of 100 simulations, while Biden was favored in 48 out of 100 simulations for such states.